- JENIN -

In the harsh light of reality, the confirmed Jenin massacre has shrunk to 52, of whom 22 were "non-combatants".  That means 30 fighters were killed.  The sympathy of the world must go to those 22 non-combatants in a war zone, but perhaps some sympathy should also go to those non-combatant Israeli teenagers and children slaughtered by Palestinian terrorists while celebrating their religious festival?

Liberals in the UN and the USA seem desperate to establish "war crimes" against Israel.  Perhaps because otherwise the "invasion" of Hebron, Jenin etc. might be seen by world opinion for what the Israelis claim it is.. an attack on the infrastructure of terror.  It might not go well for the PLO if the world were given respite to consider why the UN did not scrutinize Israeli claims that Arafat was subsidizing terrorists.

- CURRENCY ALIGNMENT -

The Australian dollar is creeping upwards.  This is most likely because the price of gold is rising, and Australia can produce an abundance of gold if the price is above AU$600.00.  Gold is probably rising because Arab oil income is diverting into gold.  That might be happening because for political reasons, middle eastern potentates do not want to invest in the US economy.  For financial reasons (e.g. negative growth) they might not want to invest in Europe or Japan.  I leave it to readers to consider why they might think that the rest of the world is not a good investment.

QED.

- NO GUNS, THAT'S WHY AUSTRALIANS
ARE NOW MORE HOMICIDAL THAN AMERICANS -

Australian Prime Minister Howard certainly knows on which side his electoral bread is buttered.  After castigating Pauline Hanson for her racism, he adopted her racist policies.  After introducing the GST against the wishes of the majority, he gave most of it back by cutting petrol excise.

Following the Port Arthur massacre in 1996, during which a lone lunatic used a semi-automatic rifle to kill around 40 people, PM Howard restricted gun ownership and created a gun registry.

Establishment journalists (i.e. those who have real jobs) were cynical about our PM's racism & tax policies, but totally in support of the gun legislation.  After all, (they probably thought) the pen is mightier than the sword. So what if gun legislation hands more power to the police?  The police are easily controlled (if you are an establishment journalist.)  Then again, most establishment journalists in Australia are not libertarian.

Following the Port Arthur legislation, crimes of violence in Australia have risen rapidly.  This increase would have been expected by those familiar with the comprehensive analysis of social violence & guns produced by John Lott of Chicago University in 1996.  Australia is now as homicidal as the USA and getting worse.  On the other hand, since individual US states have begun enacting "right to carry concealed weapon" laws, homicidal violence in the USA has diminished and continues to reduce.

The white house gives the homicide rate for the USA in 2001 as 5.5 per 100,000, (up 3% on 2000) while the ABS gives a figure for Australia in 2001 of 5.4 per 100,000 of up from  5.1 - 5.2 per 100,000 in 1999 - 2000.  If those trends continued, both countries would have a homicide rate of around 5.5 - 5.6 per 100,000 in 2002.

Different crime types are associated with different likelihood of violence.  Burglary has the potential to be confrontational, as the occupants may be at home when the burglar invades.  Consequently we would expect the burglary rate to be less when householders may be armed.   Facts support theory.  The count of robberies (unlawful entry with intent) in Australia rose from 2196 in 1999 to 2281 per 100,000 population in 2000.  During the same period, burglaries in the USA fell from 1244 to 1,160 per 100,000 population*.

Thieving has a fairly low confrontation risk.  Thieving data supports the hypothesis that citizenry free to purchase arms as the need arises will produce a reduced level of social violence.  Theft is unlikely to involve violence, and US criminals are an order of magnitude more active than their Australian counterparts. (Perhaps due to their change of profession from the more hazardous occupation of burglary).

Perhaps it is time to permit law abiding Australians to buy a gun if they feel threatened.  Here are at least two barmaids who might be alive today if "right to carry" laws existed.  Next time it might be someone you love.

But enacting "right to carry" would be tantamount to an admission by John Howard and all of our state Premiers that they were wrong.

SPIN ARCHIVES.