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- IRAQ -
Coalition forces (US) are in Baghdad, and claim to control the airport and several arterial roads and palaces. The British are reported as using the techniques learned in Northern Ireland to calm occupied Basra. The war seems to be all over.
Saddam appears frequently on TV exhorting Iraqis to fight the invaders. In neighboring muslim countries there is unrest, and together with the dissenting countries (France, Germany & Russia) they accuse the US of an intent to profit from rebuilding. France, Germany & Russia are now demand that they be given a part in rebuilding Iraq, presumably as compensation for the lucrative contracts that they had signed and now lost with Saddam for chemical & agricultural factories. Iran, Syria and Turkey have not entered the fray, no doubt they closely watch each other and the Kurdish front, where 1,000 US troops are leading the Iraqi Kurdish (irregular) army.
The ultimate justification of the war will be determined by the Iraqi people, not the discovery of WMD or the capture and trial of Saddam Hussein. If the Iraquis endorse the overthrow of Saddam, then the UN, the political parties and nations that resisted the war and neighboring arab states will all be seen as having miscalled the issues for differing selfish reasons, and Bush, Blair and Howard (Our Australian Prime Minister) will be seen as a world statesmen of vision, strength & integrity.
I expect that Bush will appoint a governor of Iraq until those issues become clear. If the Iraqis conduct massive civil disobedience, signifying displeasure at their liberation, then the UN will be called in. The coalition's reluctance to hand over governance to those who objected to intervention on behalf of the Iraqi people is understandable. Especially considering the regressive economic regimes existing in all of those nations.
It is interesting to speculate that the problems now facing the US with North Korea and Iraq were caused by Clinton. If Clinton had gone into Iraq in 1992 when it became obvious that Saddam was murdering the Shiites and the Kurds, then he might well have had full local backing, and the present battles would have been unnecessary. If Clinton had not paid tribute to bribe N.Korea to not develop nuclear weapons, then North Korea would probably have already imploded, and still not have had nuclear weapons. However when the succession found a ready income from Clinton's tribute, they continued the WMD course laid out.
On the other hand, perhaps Clinton's approach of perpetual delay is correct. If problems are delayed for long enough, eventually (sometimes) they disappear. America is rich beyond the dreams of avarice, and like the fabled pharos of early egypt, perhaps purchasing peace in our time is worth the problems and humiliations that bequeathed on descendants.
- SARS -
As fresh information has become available, I have recalculated
the table displayed in the last
diary entry. It is likely that the discovery rate (percent of
actual cases found) has improved.
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The cases formula is a simple GP with ratio now set at
a 13% daily growth (previously 11%). I have left out the data from
Guangdong, because that data appears unreliable. Thus the start date
appears to be about 7th February, which is about when the HK index case
might first have presented symptoms. The fatalities formula
is the case presentation formula started about 28 days following the case
presentation formula. If the average time from presentation to mortality
is 14 days, then a fatalities rate of about 16% is indicated. To
establish the 4% fatality rate that is widely publicized by WHO, the average
time from presentation to fatality would have to be 3 days. This
information is presented in the table below.
| days presentation to mortality | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 |
| fatality rate of those presented | 3% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 6% | 7% | 8% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 13% | 14% | 16% | 18% | 20% | 23% | 26% | 29% | 33% | 38% | 43% | 48% | 54% | 61% | 69% | 78% | 89% | 100% |
It is stated that about 80% of people begin to get well about two weeks after presentation (detectable symptoms). Of the remaining 20%, those with a pre-existing condition are less likely to improve. Of that 20%, it is thought that intensive nursing might help recovery. There is no treatment, although some clinicians claim that anti viral drugs seem to help.
Individual countries appear to have differing success in managing the growth of the pandemic. In the fourteen days since 24th March, the increase in the US has been about 13 times (from 11 to 141), Canada 11 times (8-90), HK about 6 times (150-883), Singapore 3.5 times (31-106) and Vietnam has had virtually no increase at all (56-62).
An organism responsible for SARS has not yet been identified, and a chemical diagnostic test is not yet available. Diagnosis is by exclusion of other diseases. A corona virus (cold virus) is now the chief suspect. If it is a corona virus, then a cure might take years. There is still no cure for the common cold.
On analyzing the data it is fairly obvious that our leaders have lost control of the pandemic. Your diarist suggests that you prepare to retreat with your family to a survivalist campsite in remote wilderness, and warn off anybody who approaches. After 3 - 12 months the virulence should diminish or the disease disappear.
Your diarist is not prepared to take a 16% risk with the lives of himself and his loved ones.
- SARS FLASH 11th April -
The WHO site has published a "recovered" page and the
information is virtually congruent with the calculations above.
The fatality rate in Hong Kong is 16.3%, Vietnam is 8.5%, Singapore, 10.7%,
and in Canada a whopping 31.3%. Reasons for the apparently
high fatality rate in Canada could be conservatism in the determination
of when a case is considered to be "recovered", or statistical anomaly.
Most reliable (because it is based on more cases) is the HK estimate of
16%. Singapore appears to be a reversal of the Canadian case, (very
liberal in considering recovery achieved, perhaps excellent treatment).
The data for the world ex-China is 17.4%. The China data is totally
anomalous, showing a fatality rate of a mere 5.1%.