BARVENNON.COM
20th August 2006
AUSTRALIAN DIARY
What
is "objective
analysis"?
-
MUSLIMS, PALESTINE & ISRAEL -
Last week about midnight as I drove home from the cinema a woman and a
man stepped onto the road and
attempted to wave me to a stop (It was in Randwick near
Centennial
park). My first impression had been that they
needed help. After second thoughts I confess to my shame that I
drove past them without stopping to inquire. I
was afraid. Stories are rife
about
criminal violence
in similar circumstances. I do not know whether my response
is normal. I suspect that it is not uncommon.
If there were queues for two aeroplanes, and one queue
contained people of "middle eastern appearance", I would join the other
queue. I try not to be conscious of race, I know intellectually
that most people of middle eastern appearance are probably as sane and
rational as myself(?!). I do not have
control of my fears. Similar incidents are occurring around the
world.
For tens of thousands of years mankind has struggled to
establish
civilization. History teaches us that civilization has been a
constant
struggle between
centripetal and centrifugal social forces. On the one hand
peaceful individuals collect in villages and, by hard work, accumulate
wealth. On the
other hand, violent individuals seek a short cut to wealth and power,
and use
force and terror to enslave their industrious neighbors and rob them
of
their wealth.
What is the schism that is being produced in our
civilization? On one side we
have those who we identify as "seeking to expand revolutionary social
change through violence", on the other are those who "seek gradual,
individual and consensual social change".
Factor analysis will reduce the vectors in human society (i.e.
individuals) to no more
than four. I
choose the following in order of importance.
- Religious.
Unlike any other major religion, the Muslim Religion is
fundamentally hegemonistic
and intrinsically fascist.
So fundamentalist Muslims will be in revolution against the existing
order.
- Economic.
The economically disadvantaged are more
likely to be revolutionary, the economically advantaged prefer
stability.
- Racial. Semites
(Arabs) excluding Jews are growing to consider
themselves to be part of a wider "Arab nation" and side with their
revolutionary brothers. In Australia, most
people of European heritage are against the Arabs, and quite a few are
also anti-Jews (i.e. just plain anti-semitic). Africans seem to
be
drawn to the terrorists. Indians are suffering because of
Kashmir, and not revolutionary. Chinese are
currently neutral, however are unlikely to side with Arab
revolutionaries.
- Cultural dynamic.
By this I mean the structure of the society. Has the society a
liberal democratic legislative structure, or a strict and immutable
legislative structure.
Humans are a very one-dimensional species. This is
particularly
obvious in politics, where most states have only two political
choices. So in the West, we identify one threat, (Muslim
Fundamentalists) and that is the
paradigm. Muslims see only one enemy, and
that is the historic enemy of Mohommed, the Jews. So, e.g. if
the US (or anybody else) contests with a Muslim country, the Muslims
blame (that attitude of the USA) on "the Jews".
It can already be seen that the acts of terror that Muslims commit are
causing a movement in the attitude of the rest of the world.
That response is slow to build, but once moved will be very hard to
reverse. Muslims are becoming the pariah states of the world, and
(despite their near monopoly of oil resources) will find themselves
isolated from civilization.
What are the possible outcomes?
At one
extreme, the Arabs could over-run Israel, exterminating (as did
Mohommed in Medina) every male Jew in the
region, and taking the females as concubines. I believe that they
would then set similar plans for every Jew in the world, and continue
with their (previously
halted at Poitiers
732AD) holy ambition of spreading Islamo-fascism over the world,
(which history teaches means economic slavery for everyone not a
Muslim, and prevention of conversion to Islam by the enslaved Infidel).
At
the other extreme, the Jews would advance so far technologically, (e.g.
surveillance technology married with personal recognition database,
small, ultra mobile, remote controlled weapons platforms etc) that
every terrorist act would be
countered by the bringing to justice of the possibly
hundreds of people who were demonstrably involved in the
terrorist act. That extreme could result in a technological
nightmare
scenario that would make enslavement of most (99.999%) of mankind a
virtual certainty.
I hope that we can find a middle way.
28th August.
A ceasefire with Hizb'allah has been in force for some days. It
is clear that Hizb'allah has suffered (by having it's supporters
bombed), and that Israel has not won (it's soldiers have not been
rescued.) The Israelis are now paying the price for having
exchanged prisoners in the past. It is a hard calculus, but a
hostage must be considered to already be dead, to prevent just such
adventures.
2nd
September 2006
- TIMOR
-
I am not normally a conspiracy theorist, but must say that the jail
escape by ex-army officer Alfredo Reinado (The man who led
the revolt
that resulted in the recent resignation of the Timor PM) does raise my
suspicions.
In the Westminster system, politicians rely on permanent staff in the
various government departments for advice, especially in such
departments as foreign affairs. This gives continuity in dealing
with foreign governments, and obviously has desirable
aspects.
Back when Indonesia conquered East Timor, it was
with the approval of Australian government, and much of the
responsibility for government policy was based on the advice of the
public servant Richard Woollcott. As a good public servant
should, Richard had Australian
interests in mind. Particularly that potentially rich flow of
money from the E.Timor
hydrocarbon wells. (Which happen to be located on the Australian
continental shelf, but are closer to East Timor, which means according
to international law that they belong to East Timor).
Although Richard seems to have left public office, there is a
possibility that the policies continue.
Ousted Timor PM Alkatiri recently complained on the ABC "Four Corners"
program that he was rolled. He raised as possible cause the tough
deal he
was negotiating with Australia over the Hydrocarbons treaty. The
new Horta government has apparently, within days of taking power,
signed a more favorable deal for
Australia....
Alkatiri's complaint would have focused attention on the trial of
Alfredo
Reinado. Questions would have been raised at his trial. I
would imagine that publicity might not have been found appealing to
those
who organized the change of government. I suspect that Reinado
and his gang will eventually be given new identities and retire in
a nice villa somewhere in Australia....
- ABM -
Drudge today
reports:
U.S.
Interceptor Missile Hits Target...
Knocked Out
Over Pacific...[PDF]
U.S.
now sees 'good chance' to hit N. Korea missiles...
Back in July 2000
I strongly recommended that the USA pursue the ABM option. I am
glad to see that they followed my advice.
My advice now is that at least two corporations should build competing
rockets, another three or four corporations should provide different
computers, and lots of individual software suppliers be contracted to
provide proprietary intelligent software algorithms.
It is a near hopeless proposition to try to keep the ABM software
secret. So the military should resign themselves to the
inevitable. The historic balance*of megaweapons has again tilted
towards the defender. A wise strategist should make sure that any
group of ABM's has several different rockets, each with a different
defense algorithm. It might be possible to subvert or defeat one
or two algorithms, but each extra unique ABM exponentially reduces the
chance of such failure.
In fact, I suggest that the US start selling ABM's on the open
market. It's an efficient way to stop nuclear proliferation.
* The historic balance has always existed between defensive
military science & offensive military science. e.g. at one
time a castle was the ultimate defense, and until the invention of
gunpowder & the cannon, so it remained. During WWI the
soldier in a trench provided the ultimate defensive system. By
WWII the aeroplanes and Tank had changed the balance so that offensive
systems prevailed.