BARVENNON.COM
30 May 1999
AUSTRALIAN
SPIN
WEEKLY OPINION
GST
According to Meg Lees, the GST in most of Europe is
15%
- 20%. In Switzerland it is 5%. Has anyone noticed what is
happening to the "eurodollar" lately? Has anyone noticed what is
happening to European economies lately? The population of
Eurocrats
seems to increase rabidly.
The USA has no GST. Switzerland has a 5%
GST.
Has anyone noticed what is happening with the USA dollar and the US
economy
lately? Has anyone noticed what is happening with the Swiss
currency & the Swiss economy lately?
Democrat leader Senator Meg Lees has revealed
herself
as unable to maintain her virtue under sustained
duchessing.
As a consequence the Australian people will be saddled with an
inequitable
and unfair tax that they do not want, and given compensation by way of
unindexed income tax cuts that do not benefit most pensioners.
Dear Democrat Senator Stott, we respect and applaud
your
stand against Senator Lees. But stay in politics. Start a
new
"independents" party with Senator Harradine.
The political arena is wide open for a new political
party.
The coalition will be deader than Kerry Chikarovski after March
2002.
One Nation will have a show if nobody else starts a political party.
It is Aussie Spin's opinion
that
the Australian people would landslide anybody into government who
believably
promised to do nothing about anything.
SERBIA.
International diplomacy is a mix of poker &
chess.
When intelligence is good, when everyone can see the other's assets, it
is more like chess. When intelligence is poor, it is a game of
bluff
poker.
In the Kosovo game, everyone knows more or less what
assets
the other party has.
The Slavs like chess, and Serbs are Slavs. It
is
Spin's opinion that while Willie might play an OK hand of poker, he
would
be a
patzer* at chess.
(*wood pusher).
So Willie keeps trying to bluff.
- First it was surrender or we'll bomb,
- When that didn't work, it was surrender or
we'll bomb
harder
- Since that didn't work it is now surrender
or
we'll invade.
So let us look at the cards that everyone holds.
Let
us look at the chessboard.
(A) Suppose that Willie invades.
- Slobbo claims to have 100,000 troops in
Kosovo. NATO
disputes that figure, and claims that Slobbo has only 40,000 troops in
Kosovo.
- The morale of Serbian troops can be anywhere
from
dreadful
to high. NATO says Serbian morale is lousy, but Serbia says it is
good. So far the Serbs are winning, the Serbians know it, and
NATO
(excepting Jamie Shea) knows it. So probably Serbian morale is
high.
- Standard military tactics requires a 3:1
advantage
to win
a set piece battle. To meet the Serbian army will take between
120,000
and 300,000 troops (depending on whose count you rely upon).
Possibly
Yugoslav morale approximately balances NATO air superiority. But
NATO lacks seasoned troops, and is a multinational force. So far
NATO have indicated that they intend to invade with 150,000 troops.
- The Serbian army in Kosovo might well not stand
for
a set
piece battle. The architect for the Yugoslav army was Tito,
possibly
the greatest guerilla commander of the 20th Century. I suspect
that
the Yugoslav army would retreat into the hills, and harry NATO forces
from
Serbia, Albania, Macedonia, Bosnia, Croatia, Montenegro....and that is
just for starters....
- If Willie occupies Serbia then I suspect that
he
will find
an armed and hostile civilian population. Every child a potential
warrior, every whore an aids infected martyr partisan. And more
Kalishnikovs
than people.
- It will be a long campaign. Spin suspects
that NATO
will need between 500,000 and 750,000 troops, and even with an army
that
large will take huge losses. NATO will probably have to kill more
Serbians than there were Albanians in Kosovar.
- It took twenty German Divisions to contain
Tito. I
read somewhere that Slobbo's grandfather killed his mother for breaking
under torture.
I suspect the Serbians could make Vietnam or
Afghanistan
look like a Sunday picnic. Serbians are not primitive uneducated
people. They might be money poor, but they have a knowledge
heritage
rooted in the European culture. NATO might manage to kill
them
all, but it will not subdue them.
(B) Let us suppose that Willie continues bombing.
.
.
- Unfortunately for Willie, time is against him.
- The quality of targets in Serbia is diminishing
fast. Now
NATO has started destroying hospitals, refugee camps, convoys of cars
carrying
journalists, houses...
- On the 66th day, 639 air sorties managed to
"hit"
(not destroy)
17 artillery, 2 tanks, 2 mortar positions in Kosovo. (Huh!
That's probably the normal attrition rate driving around in a paddock.)
- NATO says there are about 500,000 Kosovan
Albanians
hiding
in the Kosovan hills.
- Kosovo is high mountain country & gets cold
in
winter,
which starts in December.
- The US presidential election is in 2000.
The
Republicans
must be laughing themselves sick.
- Willie HAS TO WIN Kosovo.
- So Willie has to get a real victory out
of
Kosovo
before Y2K.
- In the era of the Internet a few press barons
are
not enough
to spin victory from defeat.
- The Matt Drudges of the internet can be relied
upon
to expose
defeat as defeat.
(C) Let us suppose that Willie stops bombing. . .
- The refugee flow to Albania & the even
larger
flow to
Macedonia will stop. (Macedonia is preferred because refugees are more
likely to go on to a third country from there).
- Refugees inside Kosovo will return to their
homes.
- Possibly refugees in Macedonia & Albania
will
return.
- The KLA terrorist drugrunners will be
deleted. (what's
the european price of heroin now?)
- Journalists will be invited into Kosovo to see
refugees returning
to their bombed homes.
- Slobbo will say the refugee problem stopped
because
NATO
stopped bombing Kosovo.
- Willie will say the refugee problem stopped
because
Slobbo
is trying to make a point.
So Willie is damned whatever he does. And his
polls
are eroding.
The only chance for Willie to gain a place in
history
(if there is to be any history) is to either be indicted for his
criminal
slaughter of Serbians and Albanians, (not much chance of that) or start
WWIII.
As things are trending, history will forget Willie
by
2001. Of course the Bilderberg
Group might put up a plaque for him for being a good boy...
So watch warily for
WWIII.
Have your survival vehicle packed.
INDIA - v - PAKISTAN.
The likelihood that the third and fourth and fifth
(and
so on up to between the tenth & the twentieth) atomic bombs will be
set off in anger seems closer now than at any time in history.
Spin prays that these two nations will come to their
senses.
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