CONTINGENCIES
Catastrophes  I found a very readable page that debunks many disaster scenarios in the Economist  With those caveats in mind...

GLOBAL WARMING.  Global warming is reportedly being caused by carbon gases in the atmosphere.  The balance of these gases in the atmosphere is determined by the differential between their release and absorbtion.  The main carbon gases are the chlorofluorocarbons, carbon dioxide/monoxide & hydrocarbon gases such as methane.  Chlorofluorocarbons are not readily broken down, and their use is now banned.  Carbon dioxide is necessary for plant life, and a fair percentage of that which is not recycled by plants is absorbed by the oceans where the excess is finally deposited as limestone on the sea floor.  Hydrocarbons are generated as byproducts of biological processes.  If we must cut back on carbon emissions in the here & now, my first choice would be to ban or restrict aeroplane travel.

ASTEROID COLLISION.  The possibility of an asteroid striking the planet is calculable.  Fortunately someone (in the USA) is cataloging solar asteroid orbits.  Hopefully any potential candidate will be destroyed.

WORLD PLAGUE.  The probability that a new lethal disease will occur is probably a third power function of population, (interaction count, interaction intensity, possible host count.)   Particularly alarming is the possibility of a disease which is undetectable during a long incubation period.  Precautions are increasing medical R&D, restrict interaction groups by quarantine, reduced aircraft movements.
 

FORECASTS

One view is that the progress of humans is accellerated by utilization of applications in the disciplines of COMMUNICATION and ENERGY.  In communication applications there was language, writing, printing (12th Century) telephone/electronics (20th Century)  In energy applications there was fire, wheel/lever, heat engine/transport (19th Century).

1. ENERGY.
It can be anticipated that energy technology will soon produce an economic, carbon-pollution free power source, probably based on photoelectric technology with batteries or carbon free fuels.  The cost/efficiency of photoelectric technology is fast approaching that of fossil fuel.  The technology as yet undiscovered is a light & efficient energy storage device.

2. COMMUNICATION.
It can be predicted that communication technology will sometime between about 2010 and 2030 produce an intelligence enhancement device or an android or cyborg.  The possibilities are fabulous & frightening.   Perpetual world dictatorship by a single friendless individual will for the first time become a possibility.   The "unlimited servant machine" will become a possibility.  This hypothetical machine could contain the sum total of human knowlege and might have the ability to produce any product of human knowlege including itself from unrefined natural resources.
 
 

An earlier version of this page was listed as "POLLUTION"
That page was updated 24 November 1997, 19 January 1998.