BARVENNON.COM
June
2005
THE KILLERBELTS
This web page is about seat belt safety.
The US - NHTSA (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration) advises
that
seat belts save lives. However there is no undisputed evidence
published (see literature review in introduction)
that demonstrates
that drivers wearing a seat belt have produced a diminuition in road
fatalities. This is despite the most strenuous efforts of
government sponsored
researchers to establish that road fatalities have been diminished by
seat belts.
Two scientists (Wilde & Adams, see introduction below) have
developed a theory that explains this
anomoly. They speculated that human nature is to blame.
When a safety improvement is introduced, the driver compensates for the
perceived reduced risk by
driving less carefully. When drivers put on a belt, they drive
more recklessly.
Analysis of data collected by NHTSA-FARS
supports the hypothesis that
drivers who wear a seat belt are less likely to be a fatality.
Further analysis shows that belted drivers (probability > 99.9%)
are more
likely than unbelted drivers to be
involved in a
fatal
road accident than drivers who do not wear a seat belt.
The conclusion must be that drivers who wear safety belts reduce
the risk to their own lives but
increase to a greater extent the risk to other road
users (belted & unbelted vehicle occupants, pedestrians, cyclists)
as a direct result. It can be proven that there
is a greater probability that a belted driver will be
involved in a fatal accident, and that there are more road fatalities
as the proportion of belted drivers increases.
The outcome is that the count of
road fatalities is increased when more drivers wear a seat belt.
INTRODUCTION
a
thumbnail sketch of developments, and a sketchy review of relevant
books
and papers.
DOCUMENTATION.
showing the effectiveness of Seat Belts.
I have
published
the letter of a road safety group in Ireland.
email
Originally published 28 April 1997.
This cover page first inserted 11 May 2000
Site update Dec 2003