- THE ISRAELI - PALESTINIAN PROBLEM -
The mid-east problem in Israel is undergoing a paradigm shift.
The Palestinians are at a stage of political development that the ancient Greeks named "petty warlord". Normally the "Petty Warlord" stage of political maturity is followed by a "Dictatorship". Examples of Dictator regimes exists in neighboring countries (Syria, Iraq). Dictatorships become stable over generations, and with public acceptance the Dictators take on the status of Princes. The Princes have principalities that are too small to exist as viable economic/military units, and so the principalities agglomerate into a Monarchy. The centralism of a Monarchy dissipates into an economic Oligarchy such as England in the seventeenth century. Further decentralization of power brings about a representative government (like the US, UK, Israel).
Further decentralization results in true democracy, where the people, not just their representatives, may directly vote on legislation. (Switzerland, Iceland & California are probably fairly close approximations in the modern world.) True Democracy is of such benefit that over time the citizens forget the dangers of being ungoverned, institutions decay and the democracy lapses over time into pure Anarchy. Anarchy provides an opportunity for criminals to terrorize weaker members of society and a new group of petty warlords arise as protectors and the cycle repeats. Of course the time spent in each phase of the cycle appears to be unpredictable, and the progression can be interrupted.
Warlords are not politicians. They are the heads of military organizations. There is no such thing as "Quid Pro Quo" with a mortal enemy. In a fight to the death, any concession that the enemy makes is seen as a sign of weakness & retreat, a sign that ultimate victory is that much closer. Every concession forced out of Israel by Clinton served to incite a greater effort for victory by the Palestinians.
So what is the solution?
RECOMMENDATION: The world should continue to support the only democratic nation in the region in it's effort to work out it's own solution. Cruel as such a course seems, the region would stabilize if the Palestinians came to believe that the world had abandoned their cause, thus depriving the petty warlords of the propaganda successes which generate regional support.
- INDONESIA -
The Indonesian parliament is threatening to impeach President Wahid. Not for any kind of wrongdoing. Apparently, just because they have decided that they would prefer someone else. Nobody is saying why, except that he is ineffective. With no power, how could he be effective?
The people of Indonesia are the wild card. They elected an assembly that elected Wahid to fight the corruption of the Suharto era. Wahid claimed that, against incredible opposition, he was attempting to do just that. In Australia we are left wondering.
IS THIS A PLOT BY SUHARTO SUPPORTERS TO REGAIN CONTROL OF THE MONEY BAGS???
SPIN believes that the Indonesian people should again
be asked whom they prefer. Our (Australian) politicians seem unconcerned
by the looming impeachment. They (again - as when Indonesia invaded
Timor) seem to be listening far too closely to the elitist xenophobes in
the Australian department of Foreign Affairs.