18 October 2001.

- WORLD WAR 3? -

The alignments crystallized with amazing speed.   Muslims in Indonesia, Pakistan, Egypt, Palestine demonstrated.  About 20% of the world's nations seemed to be involved.

It is not a conventional war.  It is a war between poor Dictatorship nations and rich, partially (i.e. representative) democratic nations.  The poor believe the rich nations conspire to keep them poor, and do not recognize that it is their corrupt government that keeps them poor.  The rich have been responsible for supporting the Dictatorships, if only by not condemning them for the evil that they are.  The problem is the Muslim religion, which has the potential (along with Shinto) for the "holy suicide" meme.

In this war the USA is prevented by it's own humanity from replying in kind by unleashing murderous terror weapons against the populations that support the terrorists.  Restraint might not last forever.  In the past the US took off the gloves.  Remember Hamburg, Nagasaki, Hiroshima.  Even "Holy Suicide" must expect to produce a genetic profit.

What does the Crystal Ball show?

The dice are in play.  America and it's allies are committed to finding terrorists.  Dead or alive, and if dead, they will want samples for genotyping.  And they believe that Bin Laden is involved.

Looking at the battlefields:

  1. In Palestine Arafat seems to have finally realized his role.  No more Mr. Nice guy.  He must be the Dictator who negotiates for the political survival of his people.  If this means that he must shoot a few child demonstrators, then so be it.  He must make Israel his best friend.  The Israelis were ready to retake Palestine, and create a fortress.  Now the USA has persuaded Israel to "hold off", no doubt by promising that Arafat would do what he is doing now.  The Syrian (security council) gambit was a stroke of genius.
  2. Indonesia is close to Australia, and the unwisdom of losing Gus Dur is becoming apparent.  Megawati may be out of her depth, and there is a danger that the Muslims among this peaceable nation could run amok.
  3. Pakistan has been a troubled military dictatorship propped up by the USA for a long time.  It was the strongest supporter of Taliban.   India can be relied upon as a counterweight.  If the Paks revolt, India may seek to bring peace to disputed Kashmir.
  4. Afghanistan is the military war.   The USA is using it's air power much as the Germans used their tanks in Normandy - to cut the enemy up into small, unsupported units.  Without military training, it is hard for SPIN to assess, but SPIN suspects that Afghanistan will fall within weeks.
  5. The USA was totally unprepared by Clinton for anything but peace.  Now WW3 has come, and computer face recognition software may well provide the solution.  Every citizen in urban areas will be scanned & recognized by cameras, and suspicious acts will alert security forces.  The other change will be decentralization.  Computers allow offices to be remote and efficient.  If you own land near the metropolitan center, it might not gain value for a long time.
  6. Western Europe and Anglo colonies such as Canada, Australia, New Zealand are fast becoming primary targets.

In Australia the politicians are facing off.  Incumbent Johnny Howard, (without the slightest amount of embarrassment) has completely stolen the political theme of Pauline Hanson, the person he castigated in the cruelest racist terms not three years past.

But then, honesty was never JH's strong point.

SPIN suggested that JH should repeal the GST & make peace with Pauline Hanson.  JH has attenuated the GST, but SPIN was not such a cynic as to suggest the thematic hijack that JH engineered.

Opposition leader Kim Beazley has seen an apparently unbeatable lead in January 2001 vanish into the fog of JH's racist attacks on boat people. The events on September 11 appeared to seal the position.  If KB would back down on "sorry" he would be a ringer.

There are some weeks before the election.   If PH offers repeal of GST, SPIN believes she would win enough seats to hold the balance of power.  The Democrats lose votes every time past leader Cheryl and present leader Natasha open their gobs.  The Greens are fading into pastel.


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