30 October 2001.


The cynics among Australians realize that the effects of worldwide recession is being held back by treasury generosity until the election due in a couple of weeks.   SPIN's advice is "lend as long as you can (i.e. 12 months +) for the best rates available".

Are the Muslims responsible for the recession?  Already the USA is moving towards blaming "local terrorists" for the Anthrax attack.  (Just how likely is that, given the proximity of the events?)  The Muslims will not be allowed to become important.  Preventative measures will limit the impact and exposure of future attacks.

The Muslims will do enormous damage to themselves, but not much to the USA.  They might hurt Europe, if they manage to destroy the flow of oil from Arabia.  That is not likely.  In the final analysis, the princes of Arabia are more interested in their Gucci lifestyles than in asserting "Allah Akhba" or "Insh Allah".  And with the amount of wealth available, they either buy off their countrymen, or buy an army to control their countrymen.

The real losers will most probably be Indonesia and Pakistan.

In Indonesia, Megawati is totally out of her depth.  She is a good example of why women should never be allowed to govern.  She was seduced into taking power by corrupt generals who feared the corruption reforms of Gus Dur.

The generals well knew that they could not hold power without a charismatic leader.   Unfortunately for them, she is not charismatic.  She cannot control the people.  Unless charismatic Gus Dur is reinstalled, we can expect Indonesia to explode.

In Pakistan the ruler was a general who took power when the previous (corruptly) elected government attempted to murder him.  Pakistan has not had a charismatic leader since the last one was executed last decade.  Pakistan is also likely to explode shortly.

If those two become ungovernable, the revolution will be exported.  It will sweep from Morocco to Indonesia and be so radical and bloody that IRAN and the Taliban will look like a teddy bear regimes.

The NEWS organization in England have begun to question the "Phoney" war against the Taliban.  This isperhaps a response by Rupert Murdoch to the lack of progress of his plans to own a worldwide satellite TV network.

The most likely outcome scenario is a "Fortress America - Europe - Australia."  Africa & Asia may well be the battlefield in a terrorist war that could go nuclear.


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