28th March 2002


Terrorism was probably an important precursor to the fall of the Roman Empire.  First were insignificant terrorist attacks on the fringes, more a nuisance than anything else, nibbling at independent friendly states (Saxony then, like Israel in the Fifties).  Then attacks on the outer provinces of the "civilized" world, (Gaul & England, like the Munich Olympics or Chechnya).  Then isolated raids on Rome itself.  Like seven-eleven.

The intensity of worldwide terrorist attacks has ramped upwards for half a century.  The source of the metastasizing infection was Palestine.   SPIN analyzed the Palestinian problem in July 2001.    In September 2001 SPIN foretold that 9/11 would result in the termination of Palestine. (SPIN got the timing wrong.)

In Rome the terror ramped upwards for seven centuries.  But this is the age of communication, what took centuries happens in decades.

What can be done about Palestine?   Israel and the world seek answers.

A policy of appeasement has hothoused a culture of rabid Muslimism in Palestine.  Possible solutions were explored by SPIN in July 2001.   Options (1), (4) & (5), unlikely then, were rendered impossible by 9/11.  Option (2&6) was to terminate terrorist warlords.  The Israelis have since followed that approach with restraint.   Arafat did not have the moral authority to impose option (3), so now option (2&6) must be expanded.

The expanded terrorism will probably provoke more active termination of Palestinian terrorist leadership in Israeli controlled territory.  Expect Israeli control to be extended over all of Palestine & an expansion of the use of computer technology, possibly by the creation of a database of all people and their familial relationships within Israel & Palestine.  A sensible policy would have that database linked to face recognition software, & installation of an ubiquitous security camera network.

That database would allow creation of a "risk list".  Possibly any family member of a known activist would go on the "risk list".  Perhaps there would be some sort of points system (eight points for a sibling or parent or child, four points for a cousin or uncle or grandparent or grandchild, two points for a first cousin, one point for second cousins.) would probably be constructed.

When sufficient points (say ten points or thereabouts) are accumulated, the risklister would be transferred to some sort of "out list".   Outlisters would be deported, jailed or sent to refugee camps.  Both would probably be public lists, published on the internet.  Those on the "risk list" would probably have restrictions on work, travel, residence, consorting and have to obey a stringent a curfew.  Security cameras would spot anybody on the list who illegally returns to Israel or Palestine, or breaks the restrictions.  The penalty for illegal return by outlisters is to be shot on sight.  The penalty for risklisters is to become outlisters.

It might also occur to someone in Israel that it would be a good idea to utilize Madison Avenue to research the motivation of those Palestinian teenagers who suicide, and utilize methods of social transformation that might make suicide "unfashionable" in Palestine.


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