22nd May 2002


The world is verging on it's first nuclear war.  Terrorists (supposedly Muslim extremists) have killed a pacifist Muslim who sought to solve the Kashmir problem through an act of self determination.

Expert opinion is that if an incident sparks a conflagration, then the Indians (having a less militaristic culture) would take losses in preliminary engagements.   Then the weight of numbers would tell.  (India = 1 billion -v- Pakistan = 150 million).   As the military situation turned bleak for the Paks, it is thought that Pakistan would resort to atomic weapons, (they are estimated to have about 25 atomic bombs) which would cause an Indian retaliation (they are estimated to have about 80 atomic bombs).

SPIN believes that the Paks would appeal to somebody to save their bacon (e.g. the USA) before they resort to atomics.  There is a high probability that they would have to make significant concessions on Kashmir, perhaps accept a new ceasefire line that reduces the Pakistan share of Kashmir.

Middle Eastern muslims will not be happy with a Pak defeat.  However it is SPIN's assessment that the rest of the world is becoming less tolerant of the Prima Donna antics of the middle eastern muslim world.  Muslim extremists are diminishing their mana, and when that is gone, petrodollars will not buy it back.


Australia's Prime Minister Johnny Howard is on another pilgrimage to China.

SPIN has remarked previously that most Western Leaders have huge envy of Chinese leaders.  The Chinese mandarins enjoy the absolute power that is a wet dream to most OECD "democratic" leaders, and an invitation to China where such power is exercised seems to be a magnet which most national leaders seem unable to resist.

Johnny Howard is a case study for the saying "power corrupts".  When he took power, he dismissed ministers who broke the high moral code he had established.  He adopted a principled stand on Indonesia's sequestration of Timor, which successive Australian governments from Whitlam onward had been bribed to accept.

Now he ignores corruption in his ranks, and instead of continuing Australia's previous condemnation of China for it's human rights record, he has reversed foreign policy on China while pretending to the Australian people that he is only greasing up to them so that he can sell them the gas stolen from the people of Timor.

The saddest thing is, Australians have nobody in the political arena that is even as trustworthy as Johnny Howard.