- SARS(4) -
SARS (3) SARS (2) SARS(1)
The authorities have finally discovered what "Australian Diary" advised readers on the 8th April 2003, namely that the SARS fatality rate is 16%.
Again, I am impressed by the magnificent effort our authorities are making to control SARS.
The reason for this effort might have something to do with the fact that SARS might solve what my 19 year old daughter (rather tactlessly in my opinion) stated as "The problem of the Baby Boomers". Since very few people under 30 have been reported as fatalities of SARS, it is fairly clear (since at least half of the population is under 30) that the average fatality rate for those over thirty years of age must be about 30%. The BBC today quoted the death rate for those over 60 years of age as "more than 40%". Australian diary is of the opinion that for over 60's the fatality rate is likely to exceed 60%, while for those between 50 and 60 it is likely that the fatality rate would be at least 40%.
LATE FLASH 8th May 2003. WHO has stated that: The death rate is below 1 percent for people aged 24 or younger, rising to 6% for those aged 25 to 44, 15% in those aged 45 to 64 and more than 50% for those aged over 65. (I wasn't so far out, was I?).
Calculations show that SARS grew today by 0.5% (not including China & the USA). Fatality rates in the main centers are 19%(Canada), 16%(HK), 15%(Singapore), 29%(Taiwan). The high rate in Taiwan probably reflects the fact that the medical staff in Taiwan are conservative about releasing "cured" cases into the public domain. In it's early stages the Canadian fatality rate was 31.3%.
In China the daily case growth rate is currently 3%. Your diarist is very impressed by the draconian policies reported as being taken to control SARS in China. (massive quarantines). Of course in a liberal representative democracy, the news of the severity of SARS would have curtailed it's spread when first it arose months earlier, however the influence of commercial interests in representative democracies would probably have tempered the curtailment. I am now cautiously confident that the world will eradicate this disease within three or four months.
Of course the Authorities must continue to stress what
a hazard SARS is, otherwise the pandemic will not be eradicated.
- THE DISMAL SCIENCE -
In the US of A, unemployment is high, the dollar is dropping rapidly and the economy is verging on deflation. Interest rates approach zero, and (I suspect) panic in the finance sector must be a real danger. And to cap it all, there are tornados.
Everything (except the tornados) is going swimmingly. The cost of US goods on the world market is falling rapidly, a whole raft of industries are now competitive in world markets, and with a bit of skillful management on the part of that top secret government department of economic propaganda (of whose existence I can only speculate), the rest of the world will not wake up to the repurchase of America until it is mostly completed.
The real boom industry in the US will be tourism (especially low cost airlines), after SARS is stopped (as predicted above).
This is also a good opportunity to deregulate food imports. If US farmers cannot compete, perhaps it is better that their farms be subdivided & sold off as hobby farms. Lower cost food for consumers means more money in the hands of workers for consumer goods, more manufactories, more employment, a more efficient economy. (And just coincidentally, gives Australians more money to buy US products).
The renovation of the IRAQ economy will also help the
US economy (security council approval is irrelevant). Germany, France
& Russia can be expected to crumble as soon as that irrelevancy becomes
obvious (it will probably take them until July to realize that fact, because
their advisers aren't all that bright.)