28th May 2006
What is "objective analysis"?



Mortality has again raised it's ugly head.  Dimitri, a friend of over 40 years, has deceased.

So I a drove to Noosa
for the service.  It is a long (about 1,000km) trip, and petrol is now up around $1.40c/liter, so (as an experiment) I drove my 92 Camry at 90KPH.  Couldn't believe it, petrol consumption dropped to under 7 liters/Kilometer.

I arrived at a friend's house in the backwoods of Byron Bay.  Nick is a doctor who is also a coffee afficiando, and grows his own.  Believe it or not, another indication of mortality.  He was having his 50th birthday party.  So I stayed on, and met some of his friends.

His house is magnificent.  From outside, it is a mixture of styles.  The original cedar clad structure, to which has been added a modular bedroom done in zincalum, (colored corrugated iron) and a pool.


 From inside the bedroom is fabulous, en suite and walk in wardrobe, and even an isolation (from the children?) corridor.

Memories of the evening are hazy, I talked to a doctor who told me that he was doing cleft palates in India as a public service, and enjoying himself enormously.  Another doctor practiced an alternative medicine, "Kinesthesis?".  Also saw other friends from three decades past, Jack and Jane.  I retired early.

- H5N1 -

It is my predisposition to juxtapose what appear to be unconnected events.  So I view with considerable suspicion the recent anomalous instability in the stock market and the recent news on H5N1 from Indonesia.  Like Greenhammer and EffectMeasure, I do not trust that those in power will give us (the great unwashed) a timely warning.

Rather I suspect that those we have appointed to manage our interests are delaying the spread of information about H5N1 (their reason being to prevent panic).   I am not a child, and do not want a paternalist government.  I suspect that they are also taking advantage of the timespace produced to warn their friends & loved ones, and to protect themselves financially by selling securities and other things that might lose value if a pandemic occurs.

In this instance it seems to have been confirmed that P2P2P (person-to-person-to-person) infection did occur.  However medical scientists reportedly concluded that (since all instances of infection in the cluster shared a recent common ancestor) the people infected shared a genetic susceptibility to infection.  So it was a false alarm.

Thank god for the internet & bloggers.

And as an afterthought, for those of you who are as cynical as myself, the first sign of a pandemic will probably be an unexplained fall in the stock market.

Followup: 15th June 06.  Evidence for the thesis is that the stock market fall started at about the time (10th May?) that warning bells would have rung if timely reports had been submitted, and the (first) stock market recovery coincided with the provision to Indonesia of appropriate drugs.  (circa 20th May). More recent uncertainty in stock prices probably reflects residual alarm, although there might be further infections about which we have not been told.