11th November 2006
What is "objective analysis"?



Last January I wrote:

I guess the poor idiot who was AWB director will go to jail, but not lose all his booty.  If he lost the booty, (e.g. under the proceeds of crime act & based on the argument that his salary derived from the performance of criminal acts) then he might tell on TLK & Upside.  I suppose that is how business is done at the top.  He is paying the price that most of the toadies never have to pay.

I wish to revise that opinion.  They can take all of Flugge's booty, and even jail him, however he has it made for the rest of his life.  As a consultant.  Imagine the scenario:

1st oil co executive.: "Jeezus, how are we gonna get the contract to pump oil in Somerwhereistan?"
2nd exec:  "Hang on, lets see if Trevor is available for the negotiations".
3rd exec:  "You mean Flugge?  What's he cost?"
2nd exec:  "He takes 3 million retainer and 1% off the top.  I know others who will try it for lots less, but he's got respect."
1st exec:    "And respect in Anywhereistan translates into success.  Right, lets ask Trevor."

Any similarities to real people is proclaimed disclaimed.

- IRAQ -

A conspiracy theory explanation of recent world events:

A secret society that thinks it rules the world decided circa 1990 that the Muslim religion was recovering too rapidly from the Muslim equivalent of the dark ages, and so set in motion a plot to halt that recovery by fostering internecine (sectarian and nationalist) strife across the Muslim crescent.

The first step was to find a patsy with family connections and terrorist training & set him up as front man of a newly created terrorist base organization.  The base organization would have the purpose of acting as a sponsor of provocative terrorist acts against the USA.  Initial attempts are a flop.  Knocking over an occasional US warship or embassy did not provoke a general response, however eventually a successful terrorist act on continental USA caused a US sponsored UN invasion of the country from which the base organization's front man operated.  The invading army was prevented by disinformation from capture of the front man of the base organization.

A rather naive US president was prevailed upon with calculated disinformation to invade a second country in the region.  The previous dictator of that country had maintained a standing army/police force of over 500,000.  That country had three clear cultural divisions, one of which was based on slight variations of religious belief.   The other division was ethnic, about one third (seven million) of that nation's population belonged to a much persecuted cultural-ethnic group.  That group happened to
live in an oil rich region of the nation.  A further fifteen millions of that same ethnic group were persecuted minorities in adjacent provinces of neighboring countries.

Our secret society arranged that the invading US army should not provide sufficient troops and infrastructure to maintain peace in the invaded nation.  The base organization then sponsored a resistance organization with the intent of killing invader soldiers.  However the invading army was wise to the ways of terror, and these attacks were mostly unsuccessful.  The resistance started to lose momentum.  Then our secret organization persuaded the resistance organization that fomenting a religious war would serve to end the occupation.

After some time the count of secular attacks of the resistance reached a critical mass, and the hitherto peaceful members of the majority religious group began to take up arms & attack their religious minority neighbors.

Our plotters have nearly obtained their ends.

If a civil war starts, it can be anticipated that the ethnic minority will stand aside.  The secular war will have international ramifications, in that powerful neighboring countries will contend to ensure a friendly religious regime in power.

The ethnic group has, in the meantime, become well armed, and possibly able to put up a stiff resistance if surrounding predators, (who might not fancy their own ethnic minorities obtaining a neighboring homeland), decide to intervene.  By not seceding, they might hope to stave off an invasion.

If the USA can be thrown out of Iraq, then the probability is that there will be a regional internecine squabble that will denude the professional & technological class in Iraq and throw their civilization backwards by 2 generations.  This because it takes at least two generations to home grow professionals and technocrats.

Of course professionals can be imported, but can imported professionals be trusted?  Willing martyrs do not win wars, they just make it harder for the family that they leave behind.

To be continued. . . .

DISCLAIMER: Everything on this page is fiction.


Apparently Democrats in the US Senate want to cancel the ABM and instead build a laser space station to shoot down missiles.

I have already indicated why ABM's are an efficient & effective counter to ICBMs.  Now I will explain why a space station is no good.

A space station in orbit is a sitting duck.  Everybody can see it and predict exactly where it will be.  It could be destroyed by putting a small rocket (probably an ABM as already described) in an opposing LEO (Low Earth Orbit).  A few minutes before orbital intersection, a small shaped charge would be used to spray a few Kg of appropriately sized (probably between 100g & 1Kg) pellets
of tungsten carbide or similar at the space station.  At a relative speed of around 36,000 MPH those pellets would shred* a space station sheathed in chobham amour.

I suppose the Democrat senators live in states where space stations are built.

* The calculation below shows that a 1 Kg pellet colliding "head on" with a space station would releases as much energy as 50 Kg TNT.
  1. LEO speed is around 8,000 M/S.  So "head on" is 16,000 M/S
  2. TNT has an energy value of 2.7 MJ/Kg
  3. KE = 0.5*M*V^2
  4. So E = 0.5*1*(16,000)^2=128 MJ/Kg.
  5. Thus  TNT equivalent is 128/2.7= approximately 50.