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24 January 2001.
AUSTRALIAN  SPIN

- THE BUSH MILLENNIUM -

The stated policies of President Bush are to reduce US government taxes, restore liberty in the market place, strengthen the military.

If those policies are successfully applied, if the tax cut happens, if the markets are liberated, then perhaps the economy would improve.  Like a space rocket taking off, the improvement would be gradual at the start, then would gain acceleration to restore the momentum that provided the last ten years of benefit.

Bush's record on capital punishment will be respected by those who believe that "an eye for an eye" is the way of life.   Remember what happened in Iran when Reagan took over from Carter?   Terrorism worldwide diminished.   There will be no more surgical wars that kill more civilians than did the supposed "criminals".  A readiness to fight diminishes the need to fight.

The Emergent Euro bloc is like a continuation of the Clinton nightmare. A vicious inward spiral of bureaucrats and the taxes required to implement the Euro "nanny" state now seems inevitable.  If you live in Europe, SPIN suggests that you emigrate.

The baby boom generation is retiring and it's members have capital to invest.  The oversupply of capital will drive interest rates lower & will drive the stock market to unsustainable heights.  This will have a murky effect on real estate.

The internet accelerates the metabolism of corporations.  They grow through adolescence faster.  They mature and die faster.  Consequently the difficulty of turning a profit dealing shares will increase.  IPO's will happen only to matured businesses (with diminished growth prospects), or phantoms.  The policy of creating merged oligarchic super corporations will be in difficulty as small, internet flexible competitors nibble away at the huge profits required to fund the mergers.

If you are computer literate and pragmatic, it is a great time to be in business.

If you are a liberal journalist, then good luck.  You may well need it.
 
 

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