APRIL 2015
A FEAST OF CONSPIRACY THEORIES
1. The TPP (Trans Pacific Partnership) CONSPIRACY
I advance the following otherwise unrelated events in seriatim:
- The spectacular surge into unpopularity of
LNP Prime Minister Abbott, following virulent attacks by Fairfax,
Murdoch and the ABC.
- The recent spectacular loss of Queensland
by the LNP.
- The signing of the metadata legislation.
- The entry of cheap online movies (via Stan,
Netflix et al) into the Australian market.
- The about face of "The Australian" re the
LNP in NSW.
- The spectacular recovery of Liberal
fortunes in the recent NSW elections after those two events.
- The cessation of attacks on Abbott.
- The looming signing of the TPP.
- The innocuous and disarmingly upbeat
commentary on the TPP in April 4-5 "The Australian" by Judith Sloan. "Trans-Pacific
Deal
gives
us
a
spot
in
the
big
league".
On the basis of the above, I deduce that our PM Abbott is
being pressured to sign the TPP on terms that the chief Australian
beneficiary of copyright laws wants. It's not rocket
science. If he does, I confidently predict (90%) his reelection
in 2016-2017. If not, the result of the next election is less
certain.
2. The MIDDLE EAST (ISIS & IRAN)
CONSPIRACY
First, let me list who are the protagonists, and
try to guess who is on whose side.
Sunni and Shia have mutually hated each other since the battle
of Karbala 680AD which was over the succession following the death of
Mohammed 632AD. Nowadays, about 85% of Muslims are Sunni, and
~15% are Shia.
IRAN (a Shia majority state, population 80 million) says it
hates ISRAEL. It supports SYRIA (a Sunni majority state ruled by
a Shia dictator) and Hezbolla (an anti Israel terrorist organization
based in Lebanon) and the Shia majority in IRAQ, and the revolution in
Yemen.
ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) is Sunni and likes most
Sunni peoples but apparently not the Kurds (who are Sunni). ISIS
wants to reestablish the (Sunni) Caliphate of Mohammed. ISIS is
particularly noteworthy for it's use of modern communications
technology with graphic demonstrations of beheadings and other violence
against western journalists who are not considered "friendly".
ISIS has frequently and publicly executed Shia soldiers captured in
IRAQ and Syria. ISIS is attracting volunteers from all over the
world.
TURKEY (Sunni, 80 million population) has a major worry about
the PKI (Kurdish independent movement). Kurds number about 20%
(16 million) of Turkish people. Perhaps for this reason Turkey is
not actively fighting against ISIS, and allows ISIS volunteers to cross
into Syria.
Saudi Arabia (Sunni-Wahhabbi) is a kingdom ruled by the house of
Saud. A very generous social security regime based on pumping 12
million barrels of oil each day tends to subdue revolutionary
tendencies in the population. They are not happy with the
Iranians who are stoking problems in Yemen. (Saudi Arabia and Yemen
each have about 20 million people). They strongly support the
Egyptian president. Nobody in the middle east ever admits to
being pro-Israel, but Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan appear less
antagonistic than most.
Egypt. There are about 90 million Egyptians, 90% of whom
are Sunni, the rest are a mix including Copts. The current
Military dictatorship is firmly aligned with the Saudi regime, which
provides financial support.
Kurds (from World
Factbook) number around 18 million in Turkey, 8 million in Iran 5
million in Iraq and 1 million in Syria. Total over 30 million.
They seek to carve out a Kurdish homeland from Turkey, Iraq, Syria and
Iran. The US is sympathetic, perhaps because they constitute a
countervailing threat to those four states.
The USA position is complex. It has a large air force
base (left over from the "cold war") at Incurlik, Turkey. The US
has helped Turkey with the PKI. The US supports the state of
Israel, is friendly with the Kurdish proto state in N. Iraq, is
friendly with Saudi Arabia, to whom it supplies weapons. The
Barak initiatives in Egypt and Libya appear to have failed. The
US is helping Iran to attack ISIS in Tikrit (but will balk, I suspect
at Mosul). The US is helping Saudi in Yemen against Iranian
interests.
And against this background the US president Barak Obama is signing a
deal with Iran to restore trade, and helping Iran in Iraq by bombing
ISIS in Tikrit.
Most everybody hates the US helping Iran. The Israelis and Saudis
call "betrayal", the congress threatens to rescind, (why not impeach?)
and all the commenters in western media seem to be against it on the
grounds that it is "too generous" to Iran.
Israel. Iran is the main power supporting the
terrorist cell Hezbolla. The new PM of Israel got elected by
strongly objecting to any reduction of sanctions that benefits Iran.
CONSPIRACY THEORIES
- I smell a rat. If all of Iran's
enemies (Israel, Saudis, US Govt.) were not so against a Nuclear deal,
I do not
think the Iranians would accept the deal. Because, after all,
asceticism is (or should be) a way of life to a cleric. Who needs
all those disruptive consumer goods? I suspect the Iranians are
only dealing with Obama because everyone they hate (Israel, Saudi, US)
says they hate the deal.
- I smell another rat. Is the US really
anti ISIS? So many of ISIS policies align with US
interests. Of course, with the publicly shown beheadings on
UTube, it would be difficult for the US to publicly support ISIS.
Considered objectively, ISIS is quite possibly no less bloody minded
than Turkey
(killing Armenians & Kurds), Syria (gas bombing it's Sunni
citizens), or Iraq (persecution of it's Sunni minority). I am not
so certain that Barak is not giving tacit support to ISIS.
I am not particularly happy with our Western style
democracy. Since
Greek times, democracy has been known for the political corruption that
it seems to encourage. (The Greeks thought that a benign dictator
governed best. Perhaps something like Singapore's Lee Kwan Yu or
the recent
Chinese government? There is however the problem of
succession).
As an aside, we see plenty of corrupt behaviour in
our
local Obeid etc politicians. When I consider the forces that
influence our politicians, I begin to understand why the LCP is having
such a hard time. The problem is, basically, Abbott and Turnbull
are honest. They will try not to do deals that will harm the
people of Australia as a whole. That attitude does not excite the
various power groups (industry, mining, trade union) that control the
media. If they get rid of Abbott, Turnbull will be just as
bad. OTOH the Labour party is pretty awful. Those forces
corrupt our democracy.
Perhaps theocracies would better
serve the religious
people of the world.
Perhaps we should stop interfering in other people's politics?
Stop trying to introduce Democracy where it seems to be unwanted?
Libya, Egypt, Afghanistan, Iraq and maybe Syria are examples of what
can go wrong.
I vote we get out of the Middle East. Let our disaffected
Australian Muslims go over to the middle east and fight for whatever
side they
think is right. Let ISIS or Iran or Turkey or whoever conquer the
rest or make peace amongst themselves, then we can deal with whoever
comes out
on top. Perhaps a religious Caliphate will turn out to be a
better system of
government than our democracy? Maybe I would be better off if I
moved there and paid the Jiza tax? I just do not know.
The argument that they might come back radicalized and commit acts of
terror is not supported by logic.
ICE aka SPEED
On Ice, I agree with Allan Jones, who considers
that any catastrophe caused by use is self caused. But with the
following proviso: As a Libertarian, I would legalize all drugs
including ICE. I would treat it much like alcohol. If a
person drives while on ice, they are liable to a jail term. If
they initiate violence, they are liable to a jail term.
I also agree with Jones that Prime Minister Abbott would be better
advised to spend the money he wishes to spend on Ice rehabilitation by
gifting (not lending) that money to farmers for drought relief.
Dr Karl
The good Doctor did a paid advertisment for the
government promoting IG4 (Inter Generation Report 4). I guess his
research department was not up to reading "The Australian" which had an
article by Demographer Bernard Salt on IG4 (P26, 19th March, reiterated
at the bottom of last month's ozdiary here)
which
called
into
question
the objectivity of that report.
I guess that sloppy research is all that you can expect from people who
are employed by my ABC.
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