Australian DIARY


ARCHIVES 1997-2007  --- ARCHIVES 2007 +
APRIL 2015

1. The TPP (Trans Pacific Partnership) CONSPIRACY

I advance the following otherwise unrelated events in seriatim:

On the basis of the above, I deduce that our PM Abbott is being pressured to sign the TPP on terms that the chief Australian beneficiary of copyright laws wants.  It's not rocket science.  If he does, I confidently predict (90%) his reelection in 2016-2017.  If not, the result of the next election is less certain.


First, let me list who are the protagonists, and try to guess who is on whose side.

Sunni and Shia have mutually hated each other since the battle of Karbala 680AD which was over the succession following the death of Mohammed 632AD.  Nowadays, about 85% of Muslims are Sunni, and ~15% are Shia.

IRAN (a Shia majority state, population 80 million) says it hates ISRAEL.  It supports SYRIA (a Sunni majority state ruled by a Shia dictator) and Hezbolla (an anti Israel terrorist organization based in Lebanon) and the Shia majority in IRAQ, and the revolution in Yemen.

ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) is Sunni and likes most Sunni peoples but apparently not the Kurds (who are Sunni).  ISIS wants to reestablish the (Sunni) Caliphate of Mohammed.  ISIS is particularly noteworthy for it's use of modern communications technology with graphic demonstrations of beheadings and other violence against western journalists who are not considered "friendly".  ISIS has frequently and publicly executed Shia soldiers captured in IRAQ and Syria.  ISIS is attracting volunteers from all over the world.

TURKEY (Sunni, 80 million population) has a major worry about the PKI (Kurdish independent movement).  Kurds number about 20% (16 million) of Turkish people.  Perhaps for this reason Turkey is not actively fighting against ISIS, and allows ISIS volunteers to cross into Syria.

Saudi Arabia (Sunni-Wahhabbi) is a kingdom ruled by the house of Saud.  A very generous social security regime based on pumping 12 million barrels of oil each day tends to subdue revolutionary tendencies in the population.  They are not happy with the Iranians who are stoking problems in Yemen. (Saudi Arabia and Yemen each have about 20 million people).  They strongly support the Egyptian president.  Nobody in the middle east ever admits to being pro-Israel, but Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Jordan appear less antagonistic than most.

Egypt.  There are about 90 million Egyptians, 90% of whom are Sunni, the rest are a mix including Copts.  The current Military dictatorship is firmly aligned with the Saudi regime, which provides financial support.

(from World Factbook) number around 18 million in Turkey, 8 million in Iran 5 million in Iraq and 1 million in Syria. Total over 30 million.  They seek to carve out a Kurdish homeland from Turkey, Iraq, Syria and Iran.  The US is sympathetic, perhaps because they constitute a countervailing threat to those four states.

The USA position is complex.  It has a large air force base (left over from the "cold war") at Incurlik, Turkey.  The US has helped Turkey with the PKI.  The US supports the state of Israel, is friendly with the Kurdish proto state in N. Iraq, is friendly with Saudi Arabia, to whom it supplies weapons.  The Barak initiatives in Egypt and Libya appear to have failed.  The US is helping Iran to attack ISIS in Tikrit (but will balk, I suspect at Mosul).  The US is helping Saudi in Yemen against Iranian interests.

And against this background the US president Barak Obama is signing a deal with Iran to restore trade, and helping Iran in Iraq by bombing ISIS in Tikrit.

Most everybody hates the US helping Iran.  The Israelis and Saudis call "betrayal", the congress threatens to rescind, (why not impeach?) and all the commenters in western media seem to be against it on the grounds that it is "too generous" to Iran.

Israel.   Iran is the main power supporting the terrorist cell Hezbolla.  The new PM of Israel got elected by strongly objecting to any reduction of sanctions that benefits Iran.

I am not particularly happy with our Western style democracy.  Since Greek times, democracy has been known for the political corruption that it seems to encourage.  (The Greeks thought that a benign dictator governed best.  Perhaps something like Singapore's Lee Kwan Yu or the recent Chinese government?  There is however the problem of succession). 

As an aside, we see plenty of corrupt behaviour in our local Obeid etc politicians.  When I consider the forces that influence our politicians, I begin to understand why the LCP is having such a hard time.  The problem is, basically, Abbott and Turnbull are honest.  They will try not to do deals that will harm the people of Australia as a whole.  That attitude does not excite the various power groups (industry, mining, trade union) that control the media.  If they get rid of Abbott, Turnbull will be just as bad.  OTOH the Labour party is pretty awful.  Those forces corrupt our democracy.

Perhaps theocracies would better serve the religious people of the world.

Perhaps we should stop interfering in other people's politics?  Stop trying to introduce Democracy where it seems to be unwanted?  Libya, Egypt, Afghanistan, Iraq and maybe Syria are examples of what can go wrong.

I vote we get out of the Middle East.  Let our disaffected Australian Muslims go over to the middle east and fight for whatever side they think is right.  Let ISIS or Iran or Turkey or whoever conquer the rest or make peace amongst themselves, then we can deal with whoever comes out on top.  Perhaps a religious Caliphate will turn out to be a better system of government than our democracy?  Maybe I would be better off if I moved there and paid the Jiza tax?  I just do not know.

The argument that they might come back radicalized and commit acts of terror is not supported by logic.


On Ice, I agree with Allan Jones, who considers that any catastrophe caused by use is self caused.  But with the following proviso: As a Libertarian, I would legalize all drugs including ICE.  I would treat it much like alcohol.  If a person drives while on ice, they are liable to a jail term.  If they initiate violence, they are liable to a jail term.

I also agree with Jones that Prime Minister Abbott would be better advised to spend the money he wishes to spend on Ice rehabilitation by gifting (not lending) that money to farmers for drought relief. 

Dr Karl

The good Doctor did a paid advertisment for the government promoting IG4 (Inter Generation Report 4).  I guess his research department was not up to reading "The Australian" which had an article by Demographer Bernard Salt on IG4 (P26, 19th March, reiterated at the bottom of last month's ozdiary here) which called into question the objectivity of that report. 

I guess that sloppy research is all that you can expect from people who are employed by my ABC.