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June July 2021
Experts are
people who have studied a particular
branch of technology or knowledge and
(usually for a fee) will provide an
opinion on their area of
expertise. An expert's view can
cover the full spectrum.
As examples:
In the
matter of losing weight.
Atkins
devotees will say ignore calories,
just do not eat more than 20 grams of
carbohydrates each day. Calory
counters will say carbohydrates are
irrelevant, just eat less than 2,000
calories a day.
Then there are experts on "Climate
Change".
Fifty
years ago as a Mechanical
Engineering student, it occurred
to me that we were burning all
this coal and oil, and I wondered
what was the effect of adding all
that carbon dioxide to the
atmosphere. I asked one of
my lecturers, and he dismissed my
concerns by saying the balance was
unchanged.
Now I know
better. We are increasing
the level of CO2 (Carbon Dioxide)
in the atmosphere, and it is what
is described as a "greenhouse gas"
and so causes the atmosphere to
trap infrared radiation from the
surface that would otherwise have
radiated to space.
However
the Arrhenius equation for
Temperature rise between times "a"
and "b" is:
dT(ab) =
SensitivityConst * Ln ( CO2a /
CO2b )
And that means that the
temperature rise is not
proportional to the increase of
Carbon Dioxide, but to the log of
that increase. So the
increase that produced a 1C rise
must be doubled to produce the
next 1C rise, and doubled again to
produce the next 1C rise. And so
on.
Not only that, but
photosynthesis becomes more
efficient and needs less water as
the CO2 concentration rises.
This is called "negative feedback"
because the higher CO2 rises, the
faster CO2 is removed from the
atmosphere by photosynthesis.
So to me, the people who
want us to pay for windmills and
photocells are paying for one
class of experts, and the other
experts are branded "deniers".
Then there are
experts on Covid.
This is still a hot
topic. Some "experts" are of
the opinion that Covid-19 is
nothing but a slightly nastier
version of the flu, and that the
deaths are mainly of immune
compromised older people.
Other experts are concerned that
it seems to be mutating into more
virulent forms and that the
vaccinations are becoming
ineffective. So we are
having violent, disease spreading
demonstrations by those who do not
think Covid is anything to worry
about.