June July 2021


Experts are people who have studied a particular branch of technology or knowledge and (usually for a fee) will provide an opinion on their area of expertise.  An expert's view can cover the full spectrum.

As examples:

In the matter of losing weight.

Atkins devotees will say ignore calories, just do not eat more than 20 grams of carbohydrates each day.  Calory counters will say carbohydrates are irrelevant, just eat less than 2,000 calories a day.

Then there are experts on "Climate Change".

Fifty years ago as a Mechanical Engineering student, it occurred to me that we were burning all this coal and oil, and I wondered what was the effect of adding all that carbon dioxide to the atmosphere.  I asked one of my lecturers, and he dismissed my concerns by saying the balance was unchanged.

Now I know better.  We are increasing the level of CO2 (Carbon Dioxide) in the atmosphere, and it is what is described as a "greenhouse gas" and so causes the atmosphere to trap infrared radiation from the surface that would otherwise have radiated to space.

However the Arrhenius equation for Temperature rise between times "a" and "b" is:

dT(ab) = SensitivityConst * Ln ( CO2a / CO2b )

And that means that the temperature rise is not proportional to the increase of Carbon Dioxide, but to the log of that increase.  So the increase that produced a 1C rise must be doubled to produce the next 1C rise, and doubled again to produce the next 1C rise. And so on.

Not only that, but photosynthesis becomes more efficient and needs less water as the CO2 concentration rises.  This is called "negative feedback" because the higher CO2 rises, the faster CO2 is removed from the atmosphere by photosynthesis.

So to me, the people who want us to pay for windmills and photocells are paying for one class of experts, and the other experts are branded "deniers".

Then there are experts on Covid.

This is still a hot topic.  Some "experts" are of the opinion that Covid-19 is nothing but a slightly nastier version of the flu, and that the deaths are mainly of immune compromised older people.  Other experts are concerned that it seems to be mutating into more virulent forms and that the vaccinations are becoming ineffective.  So we are having violent, disease spreading demonstrations by those who do not think Covid is anything to worry about.