Since late August there have been developments.
So what form could evidence take? Off the cuff, I can think
of one method.
- The UK government voted against intervention.
- The USA relied on intercepted phone calls between Syrian
army people as evidence of Syrian guilt.
- There is mention that there was an intercepted call to Iran.
- President Obama has withheld action whilst seeking the
approval of the people's houses (Congress.) This is a statesman's
action, and will have ramifications for future US presidents.
- Russia has gone on record as condoning action if there is
evidence of Assad's involvement.
I suspect that chemical analysis of the gas used in Syria should be
compared with a chemical analysis of gas in Assad's stockpiles.
In any case, analysis of the gas used could probably determine where
the ingredients were sourced, and might indicate whether it was from
Assad's stockpile or from some other source.
AN OUTLINE OF MIDDLE EAST POLITICS.
There are three original and ancient cultures. Iran, Egypt
and Turkey. Other powers were Yemen, Ethiopia, Iraq.
Since 1828 the Ottoman empire has been shrinking from Algeria, Greece,
and Yemen. In 1914 they chose the wrong side, and got shrunk back
to present day Turkey, which still contains the subjected Kurds.
The Ottoman empire was a caliphate, meaning religious and political
primacy resides in the Caliph, who claims to be a descendant of
Mahommed. The Caliphs treated the subject races as "protected"
and relocated them at will.
So far as I can determine the current division is based nominally on
democracy, but in reality it is a division between those who are
attempting to restore the Caliphate and those who prefer a tribal style
dictatorship. Tribal dictators usually rule with the consensus
consent of the sub tribal leaders. A further complication exists
in the Caliphate Shia-Sunni divide, which is disagreement as to
Mohamed's descendants. The Shia (Iranians) are in conflict with
the Turks on that issue. Assad (Syria) is a Shia tribal dictator
ruling a mostly Sunni state.
Tribal style dictatorships are in power in Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the
gulf states. Theocratic democracies exist in Iran and
Turkey. However Turkey is Sunni and Iran is Shia. Thus we
have a triangle of powers between whom exists mutual distrust.
Israel stands outside these groupings. Nominally, everybody is
anti-Israel, but most have treaties or tacit agreements with the state.
The USA has two allegiances. One is to it's Air Force base
Incurlik in Turkey. The other is to the major oil power, Saudi
Arabia. So the USA supports two opposing parties. The Turks
rely on the USA for support against Kurdish separatism. The Saudi
rely on the USA for military stability in the gulf. The conflict
in Syria is quite likely as a result of Turkish initiatives. The
counter revolution in Egypt appears to be as a result of Saudi
initiatives. The USA is the meat in those sandwiches.