Kong administrator Leung Chun-ying has
proposed modifications to election procedures
in Hong Kong. The calculated response of
the "occupy central" students group could well
see his dismissal, although perhaps that
dismissal will be attributed to scandal about
his acceptance of seven million dollars from
an Australian company. With Leung
dismissed, a new administrator could produce a
settlement without loss of face by Beijing.
Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore are three
alternative governance models for the Chinese
people. And of these, Hong Kong appears
to have been the most successful, although
that supremacy is apparently being lost to
Singapore. It is my understanding that
it has the most liberal governance of the
three, although that too is subject to
subversion by installation of an undemocratic
Even before the UK relinquished
governance of HK on 1st July 1997, China had
learned from and adopted some of the
commercial ideas practiced in HK, (and
greatly profited therefrom.) China has
just become the nation with the greatest GDP
(on a PPP basis) in the world.
Perhaps Beijing is worried that another
Tienanmen Square revolution might
eventuate? Admittedly, with the example
of a success of the action by the students of
HK that possibility would increase.
On the other hand, is Beijing more interested
in benefit to the Chinese people, or benefit
to those in power? Because "behind the
scenes" control of a western representative
democracy is certainly a more difficult
problem than control of a state where the
"mandate of heaven" is all that is
needed. And although democracy has been
known since the Greek city states era to be a
very corruptible form of government, it is,
subject to free information flows, capable of
evolution without the mandate of heaven being
The world is watching you Mr. Xi.
EBOLA facts as of 10 October 2014.
The diagram below is from Wikipedia. The
horizontal scale is linear. The vertical scale is logarithmic.
has approximately 70% fatality rate.
and CDC advise that ebola cannot
aerosolize. However it appears that
the definition of aerosolize does not
exclude the breathing in of e.g. infected
droplets from an infected person's cough
or sneeze. Or becoming infected by
touching an infected surface.
four weeks for the
past 4 months the
count of infected
persons has doubled.
of 1st October 2014 there were
approximately 8,000 infected persons.
Notice that the red and the black lines are
straight from June. That "straightness"
on this (log-normal) graph indicates
exponential growth. The earlier "bumps"
for low counts of cases are normal variance
for small samples.
The "halfway point" in time for 100% worldwide
infection if infection rate is exponential is
the geometric mean of the world population,
(i.e. square root of about 7 billion) which is
about 85,000 people. If growth rate
remains unchanged, that point will be reached
by early January 2015.
If those circumstances eventuate, if 85,000
people are infected by January 2015, I am
heading for the hills.
I plan to update this page fortnightly.
facts as of 4 November 2014
facts as of
reports 13,570 cases as of
to Wikipedia, CDC
estimates that actual
cases are 2-3 times higher
than officially reported.
states that cases reported
for October 29th might
have been over reported.
ratio 13570/8000 ~
1.7 which would
indicate a reduction in
the trend transmission
rate, which previously was
reports 15,145 cases as of
ratio 15,145/13,570 spread
over 16 days = 0.53 months
indicates a growth rate of
(15145/13570)^(0.53) ~ 1.2
which is down from 1.7 in
October. If it
continued growing at this
rate, it would take four
months to double the